The Economic Curveball
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We have heard about “flattening the curve” for months. The way it has been presented in much of the press gives the impression that the flattening objective is to eradicate the COVID-19 disease. That’s incorrect. The apex of the “curve” represents the point of maximum saturation of the disease in various populations. If the apex is too high, the healthcare system will be overwhelmed and breakdown. The severe mitigation methods used for “flattening” are designed to prevent the collapse of healthcare.
As the country begins to reopen, it is important to note that as the curve is flattened, it also becomes “squished out”. The apex is reduced and hospitals are protected, but at the same time the case load is pushed out into the future. Either the number of sick people crests all at once or the illnesses are just spread out over time. The area under each curve is quite similar meaning the total number of sick people is about the same with or without mitigation. This shows that, even with mitigation, the coronavirus caseload does not go to zero but remains at an elevated level for an extended period of time. As the individual states reopen their economies, it is important to realize that coronavirus cases will remain, at least until an effective vaccine is available.
The public needs to be educated of the unfortunate fact that pandemic-related deaths will continue whether or not the lockdowns continue. It is wrong, for some politicians to twist the interpretation of the data and claim their extreme measures will reduce the over-all number of deaths. It appears their goal is to unilaterally extend their emergency powers, further their agendas and harm the economy in order to manipulate the results of the 2020 elections.
This is not to say that the mitigation measures that were undertaken were wrong or unnecessary. Protection of the healthcare system is crucial. What is wrong is intentionally ignoring the fact that the coronavirus deaths will continue and present conjecture as fact by asserting that severe mitigation will save lives. The use by government leaders of isolated, sad cases of COVID-19 related deaths to fuel emotional appeals and use this as justification for keeping the economy closed down is deceitful and unconscionable. The choice offered by Patrick Henry during the Second Virginia Convention: “Give me liberty, or give me death!” does not apply during this crisis.
